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Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson forecasts increased tariffs on Chinese imports and specific products from the EU and Asia, viewing current measures as a precursor to further negotiations. He predicts the S&P 500 could peak at 5,900 under stable conditions, with potential for 6,100 if earnings improve, but could drop to 5,500 with disappointing news. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro estimates tariffs could yield $600 billion annually, though economists like Mark Zandi argue the realistic figure is closer to $100-$200 billion.
Goldman Sachs has raised the odds of a US recession to 35% within the next year, citing escalating tariffs from Trump's trade war as a key factor. The bank also increased its inflation forecast and adjusted its GDP growth estimate for 2025 to just 1%, while predicting a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. Consumer confidence has significantly declined, with many Americans anticipating higher unemployment, as the administration's aggressive tariff policies continue to unfold.
US President Donald Trump has initiated an investigation into timber imports, potentially leading to higher tariffs, citing national security concerns. This move targets large exporters like Germany, Canada, and Brazil, with the aim of boosting domestic timber production and reducing construction costs. However, industry leaders warn that such tariffs could increase construction expenses and hinder new projects.
Elon Musk's close ties to Donald Trump may hinder Tesla's efforts to launch its full self-driving technology in China, as Chinese officials consider using the approval as leverage in trade negotiations. Despite Musk's popularity in China, Tesla faces fierce competition and regulatory challenges, complicating its market position. The delay in FSD approval could impact Tesla's revenue in a market where rivals like BYD are rapidly advancing their technology.
Elon Musk's initiative to reduce the federal workforce, part of Donald Trump's "department of government efficiency," could disrupt the labor market, as economists warn that cutting jobs from the 3 million civilian employees may hinder job creation. Musk and co-head Vivek Ramaswamy aim for $500 billion in savings through mass layoffs, raising concerns about the impact on job seekers and potential increases in contractor costs. Meanwhile, Trump has nominated Paul Atkins to lead the SEC, signaling a crackdown on Big Tech, as he reshapes his administration with loyalists and financial experts.
Consumers are increasingly pushing back against high prices, with major retailers like Target and Walmart responding by reducing prices. However, proposed tariffs from President-elect Trump could lead to new price hikes, as companies may find it easier to pass on costs to consumers than in previous years. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin notes that while tariffs create inflationary pressure, the actual impact on prices will depend on various factors, including consumer and business responses.
President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Peter Navarro as Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, following Navarro's release from prison after serving time for contempt of Congress. Navarro, a key trade advisor during Trump's first term, will focus on advancing Trump's manufacturing and trade agendas, emphasizing "Buy American, Hire American." Trump praised Navarro as a victim of the "Deep State" and a strong advocate for protectionist policies.
Peter Navarro
People
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